(Reprinted from June 25, 2009. Not much has changed meanwhile that would prove the general approach of this analysis wrong. Maybe on the contrary: the US troops’ withdrawal seems even to have strongly confirmed concerns of a disintegration or at least internal ethnic conflict in Iraq threatening to spread to neighboring Turkey and Iran).
By Abbas Djavadi – Occasionally, I have heated discussions with my Turkish and Kurdish friends. Most of those from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, emboldened by the region’s semi-independence from Baghdad and its current relative stability, warn that it would declare independence if things fall apart in Iraq.
At this juncture, we have serious disagreements over whether the resulting small, landlocked country encircled by hostile neighbors (Arab Iraq, Iran, and Turkey) would be viable.
Even a “Greater Kurdistan,” although seemingly an impossible project that would lead to decades of bloodshed and destruction, would not drastically change the geostrategic environment of that new independent state.
The Turks are certainly very strongly opposed to any manifestations of separatism and, no doubt, Turkey’s strong and popular army would do its utmost to suppress any independent Kurdish state proclaimed on Turkish territory. Its reaction would be much harsher than the current efforts to contain the PKK.
The International Crisis Group recently published a report titled “Turkey and Iraqi Kurds: Conflict or Cooperation?” which I strongly recommend to all those with an interest in this region.
